Lessons from Global Crises: Resilience and Security in a New Era

The last four years have been a sobering reminder of the fragility of global security, with ongoing crises like those in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as the rise of hybrid warfare and cyberattacks. These events have exposed vulnerabilities across national defence systems, economies, and supply chains, sparking crucial conversations on how nations, businesses, and societies can improve their resilience.

As we reflect on the implications of these conflicts, several key lessons emerge on the complex interplay between security, resilience, and global interdependence.

1. Hybrid Warfare and Cyber Threats: Expanding the Battlefield

In modern warfare, traditional borders and physical conflicts are no longer the only arenas where battles are fought. Hybrid warfare, a blend of military operations with cyberattacks, economic pressure, disinformation, and social manipulation, is reshaping how we understand conflict. In both Ukraine and Gaza, cyberattacks targeting infrastructure, financial systems, and supply chains have become a tool for state and non-state actors to weaken their adversaries.Cyberattacks and digital espionage have shown how reliant nations are on interconnected digital systems. The 2021 ransomware attacks on critical U.S. pipelines and healthcare systems highlighted the cascading effects that cyberattacks can have, from disrupting fuel supplies to crippling essential services. These attacks raised questions about the resilience of digital infrastructure and revealed gaps in cybersecurity defences, even in the most advanced nations.

The lesson:

Nations and companies need to harden their cybersecurity infrastructure. This requires investment in both technology and skilled professionals who can anticipate and neutralise threats. Businesses must collaborate with governments to share intelligence on emerging cyber risks and ensure their systems are well-protected, and work with other companies to ensure there are redundancies and back up systems.    

2. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: The Ripple Effect of Conflict

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of global supply chains, but conflicts like those in Ukraine have only deepened the crisis. Ukraine, known as the "breadbasket of Europe," is a major exporter of grains and raw materials. The disruption of these exports has led to skyrocketing food prices and shortages in many parts of the world, creating ripple effects across industries dependent on these supplies.The war has also affected critical sectors such as energy, where Europe has been heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas. Sanctions on Russia, combined with the severing of supply routes, forced countries to rapidly diversify energy sources, often at higher costs. This scramble has laid bare the need for more resilient and diversified supply chains.

The lesson:

Countries and companies must reduce over-reliance on single sources of raw materials or energy. Building redundant systems, stockpiling strategic reserves, and investing in regional supply chains can mitigate the impact of such crises. Identifying key risks and developing backups to them is crucial, be it the knowledge and skills of an individual, or one particular product that is key to your business but only available from one supplier.    

3. Supporting Allies While Maintaining National Interests: The Strain of Multilateral Crises

The ability of nations to support allies in times of conflict, while maintaining their own stability, has been tested in recent years. The U.S., NATO, and European allies have poured military, financial, and humanitarian aid into Ukraine, as well as other crisis zones like Gaza and Afghanistan. However, this support comes at a cost—both financial and in terms of national resources.For many countries, the pressure to assist allies while managing their own economies, public services, and national security is becoming a balancing act. Even wealthier nations have faced growing strains on their defence budgets and the need to replenish their stockpiles of weapons and munitions.

The lesson:

Governments must plan for the long-term strain of supporting multiple allies at once. This includes assessing their own defence reserves, ensuring sustainable military production capacity, and preparing for the potential costs of drawn-out engagements. A nation's ability to assist others depends on its own resilience and preparedness. These same principles apply equally to companies, especially if they are highly reliant on widespread and complex supply chains.   

4. Economic Resilience: The Cost of War and Its Global Impact

Conflict zones like Ukraine and Gaza have demonstrated how localised wars can have global economic repercussions. Sanctions against Russia have reverberated through energy markets, driving up costs and contributing to inflation in multiple regions. Meanwhile, disruptions in manufacturing hubs, such as Ukraine’s steel industry, have affected sectors ranging from construction to automotive manufacturing worldwide.

Further, businesses with operations or suppliers in conflict areas have had to deal with supply shortages, logistical challenges, and increasing costs, all of which have exposed their vulnerability to geopolitical risks.

The lesson:

Companies and governments alike need to include geopolitical risk assessments in their strategic planning. Diversification of suppliers, increased local manufacturing capabilities, and the ability to rapidly pivot are essential for minimising economic fallout from conflict. Businesses must factor in the potential for regional instability when designing their supply chains and operational frameworks.   

5. Overlooked Areas: Strengthening Weak Links

Many aspects of resilience and security often receive less attention than they deserve. For instance, the availability of critical materials such as rare earth elements, which are vital to modern technology and defence systems, is often taken for granted. Disruptions in their supply can have far-reaching consequences, particularly for sectors like defence, technology, and energy.Additionally, water security and food resilience are areas that need more attention. Climate change, combined with conflicts over land and resources, has placed unprecedented pressure on food and water supplies. Nations with unstable or insufficient food production systems may face severe challenges during conflicts, leading to increased internal instability.

The lesson:

National resilience needs to encompass a broader scope of sectors. Water, food, rare materials, and even logistics infrastructure must be considered as part of national security strategies. For businesses, ensuring they have diversified access to these critical resources and anticipating potential disruptions will be key in maintaining operations during crises.   

6. Collaborative Security and Multi-Nation Responses

One of the more complex dynamics of modern crises is how nations can jointly respond to global emergencies while maintaining their own resilience. Whether it's responding to natural disasters, military engagements, or cyberattacks, no nation operates in isolation anymore. The ability to coordinate aid, logistics, and military support across borders has become a critical capability for coalitions like NATO or the EU.The challenge here is whether countries can commit to long-term support without compromising their own domestic needs. As the U.S. and European nations send aid to Ukraine, they face domestic political pressures to address inflation, energy costs, and public discontent over defence spending.

The lesson:

International alliances must improve coordination mechanisms for sharing resources, technology, and intelligence. Standardising supply chains for critical defence and humanitarian aid ensures that member nations are not left vulnerable while supporting others. A key focus should be developing frameworks for multi-crisis responses that enable nations to manage both domestic and international emergencies simultaneously.   

Conclusion: A New Paradigm of Resilience

the importance of preparing for the unexpected. Geopolitical, economic, and cyber risks must all be integrated into national security frameworks, and businesses must develop adaptive strategies that anticipate potential disruptions.The future of resilience lies in recognising that security is no longer just about defending borders—it’s about protecting supply chains, infrastructure, and the very systems that sustain modern economies. With the right foresight and investment, nations and companies can better withstand the challenges of an increasingly unstable world.